From pollsters to pundits to statisticians, everyone is trying to predict the outcome of the 2016 presidential election. Given the history and accuracy of previous predictions, I don't hold out a lot of hope for accuracy. You might get a better read on the whole Thing from your local neighborhood psychic.
Polls and stats aside, I recently stumbled on three weird and wacky ways people are trying to predict the unpredictable.
- What Did Oscar Say? Jacopo della Quercia of Cracked Magazine says the prediction is as simple as popping popcorn. If the movie that wins the Oscar for Best Picture in the election year has a happy ending, the sitting party wins. The other party only wins if the movie has a sad ending. This year's winner is a bit of a toss-up since it's hard to tell if the end of Spotlight was happy or not.
- Olympic Incumbents. I'm not sure who came up with this one, but it is true that every year since 1968 (with the exception of '88), incumbents held on to the Oval Office if the country who hosts the summer games has hosted before. This doesn't bode well for Dems since Brazil is an Olympic first-timer.
- How Did the Los Angeles Lakers Play? Since 1960, Republicans have won the White House if the Los Angeles Lakers played in that year’s NBA Finals. It doesn't matter if the Lakers win — they just have to make the finals. If you're a hoops fan, I don't have to tell you that the Lakers' abysmal performance last season isn't a good Thing for GOP hopefuls.
Me, I don't know who will win. But I have one very happy prediction that I
know will come true: it will all be over when we vote in 87 days.
See you next week,
Bobby
